MajorHolders · Research & Analysis

Asset appreciation
flows to those who hold
the assets.

During every period of prosperity, the gains ripple outward from those at the center of ownership. Understanding who holds what — and why it matters — is the foundation of understanding wealth.

Latest Research All research →
Q3 2026 Estimate · Sep 14 Coupang — 8–9% CC Growth Meets a 300–400 bp Margin Hit Investor Risks · Sep 14 Coupang at $15 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers Cash Flow · Sep 14 Coupang Cash Flow & Margins — From $1.8B FCF to a $100M Residual Competitive Landscape · Sep 14 Coupang Competitive Landscape — Who Fights for the Same Korean Basket Ownership · Sep 14 Coupang Ownership — SoftBank Still 16%, Bom Kim Still 74% of the Votes Index History · Sep 12 SPCX vs Tesla — S&P 500 Inclusion Compared Index Plumbing · Sep 12 How QQQ Actually Buys ~173M SPCX Shares by Sep 18 Index Math · Sep 12 How SPCX’s 1.28% and 2.82% Nasdaq-100 Weights Are Calculated Float & Index · Sep 12 SPCX — Nasdaq-100 Weight 1.28% → 2.82%, and the Sep 25 Unlock Investor Risks · Sep 13 SpaceX at $151 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers Investor Risks · Sep 13 Remitly at $22 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers Cash Flow · Sep 12 Remitly — From −$6M FCF to a $400M Cash Machine Competitive Landscape · Sep 12 Remitly — Who Actually Competes for the Same Dollar Ownership · Sep 12 Remitly — Institutions Own the Book; Insider Tape Is Only Sales Equity Research · Sep 10 Remitly — Net Cash, Profitability Inflection, Mid-Teens Nine-Year Base Comparative Framework · Sep 10 Nine-Year Owner’s Return — DAL · BA · SPCX · TSLA · RELY · SPX · TLT · TLTW Q3 2026 Estimate · Sep 8 SpaceX — $10B+ Revenue, Break-Even, and a −$15B AI Capex Hole Q3 2026 Estimate · Sep 8 Boeing — Soft July–August Deliveries, and the Q4 Cash Lift Q3 2026 Estimate · Sep 8 Delta — Mid-Teens Revenue Meets a Hotter Fuel Tape
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89%
of US equities owned by top 10%
+400%
S&P 500 gain, 2010–2021
+4%
real wage growth, same period
38%
of all US wealth held by top 1%
3%
held by bottom 50%
Our belief

Prosperity is real.
So is its geometry.

Economic growth, low interest rates, and rising asset prices are not inherently good or bad. Their moral and social weight depends entirely on the distribution of ownership at the moment they occur. MajorHolders exists to map that distribution — and trace its consequences.

The question is never just "are asset prices rising?" The question is: who is sitting at the origin of that ripple?

I
Asset appreciation is a ripple, not a tide
It doesn't lift all boats equally. It radiates outward from owners — strongest at the center, weaker at each remove. Those closest to ownership capture the most.
II
Ownership concentration determines the shape of prosperity
When equities, real estate, and private businesses are held by a narrow slice of the population, any appreciation of those assets narrows the beneficiaries to that same slice.
III
Monetary policy is not class-neutral
Low rates and QE inflate asset prices before they inflate wages. This is not a bug — it's a structural feature of how modern monetary systems transmit liquidity.
IV
Each cycle compounds the prior one
Every period of prosperity that flows disproportionately to owners leaves the next cycle with more concentrated ownership as its starting point. The ratchet only turns one way.
The ripple effect

Appreciation radiates from the center of ownership.

Think of a stone dropped in still water. The energy is highest at the point of impact — then diminishes with distance. Asset appreciation works exactly this way. The owner captures 100% of the gain. Their employees, neighbors, and community absorb only faint vibrations of that wealth creation.

The distance between you and the asset owner is the most predictive factor of how much prosperity you experience during any given boom.

Asset Appreciation Ripple Effect ASSET OWNER 100% of appreciation EXECUTIVES & MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS equity comp & dividends EMPLOYEES & SERVICE PROVIDERS wages & contracts LOCAL ECONOMY & COMMUNITY spending spillover GENERAL POPULATION faint trickle effects
Ring 1 — The core
Asset owners & major shareholders
Equity appreciation, rental income, dividends, and capital gains flow directly and entirely to this group. Every 1% rise in the asset's value is a 1% rise in their net worth. No intermediary. No lag. No dilution.
Full benefit. Immediate. Compounding.
Ring 2 — Equity adjacent
Executives, employees with stock & homeowners
Equity compensation, profit-sharing, and rising home values give this group partial exposure to asset appreciation. The benefit is real but partial — diluted through salary structures, vesting schedules, and the fact that their primary home is both asset and necessity.
Partial benefit. Delayed. Often illiquid.
Ring 3–5 — The wage economy
Wage earners, renters & the asset-poor
The ripple reaches this group only as spending spillover — jobs created by wealth, services purchased, infrastructure funded by tax receipts. These are second- and third-order effects, inconsistent, and easily reversed by any tightening in monetary conditions. They feel the inflation; they rarely feel the appreciation.
Minimal. Indirect. First to reverse.
The circular question

Cause, or consequence —
a circular reference at the heart of the map.

The ripple effect describes what happens after ownership is established. But a harder question sits underneath it: does asset value rise because the wealthy hold assets, or do the wealthy hold assets because their value keeps rising?

The same major shareholders whose positions appreciate are followed — into every trade, every filing, every announcement — by a stream of allocators who want to hold what they hold. The follower flow itself becomes part of the appreciation. Ownership drives price. Price validates ownership. Each reinforces the other.

The pull
Greed for what compounds.
The push
Fear of missing what already has.

What looks like a market may be, at its base, a mirror of two very human forces — and neither of them is priced in any earnings model.

The map of ownership matters. But what draws people toward that map — and what keeps redrawing it — may be older than any accounting standard.

The ownership map

Concentration is
the starting condition.

Before analyzing any period of prosperity, you must first understand who owns the assets that will appreciate. These numbers set the geometry of everything that follows.

The data is stark. In equities, private business, and investment real estate — the three asset classes most exposed to monetary-policy-driven appreciation — ownership is concentrated to a degree that makes broad-based prosperity structurally improbable.

Top 1%
Next 9%
Next 40%
Bottom 50%
Source: Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts, 2023
Corporate equities & mutual fundsTop 1% = 54%
54%
35%
8%
3%
Private businessesTop 1% = 62%
62%
23%
10%
5%
Investment real estateTop 1% = 35%
35%
33%
22%
10%
Primary residence (homes)More distributed
9%
29%
40%
22%
Total net worthTop 1% = 38%
38%
37%
22%
3%
Ten-year evidence

Wealth share: top 1% vs. bottom 50% (2010–2023)

Top 1% share
Bottom 50% share
Fed balance sheet
Sources: Federal Reserve DFA; FRED; academic research on US wealth distribution. Fed balance sheet shown on relative scale (right axis, hidden).
The MajorHolders thesis

"The geography of prosperity is not random. It follows the map of ownership. Every period of rising asset values — whether driven by low rates, QE, or genuine growth — amplifies existing concentration before it creates new opportunity. To understand who benefits from prosperity, you must first understand who holds the assets when it begins."

MajorHolders Research

Research series

The complete archive

Q3 2026 Estimate · September 14, 2026
Coupang — 8–9% CC Growth Meets a 300–400 bp Margin Hit
Coupang (CPNG) Q3 2026 estimate: company guide is 8–9% constant-currency growth and 300–400 bps of AEBITDA margin contraction on Chuseok timing plus the incident cohort. MajorHolders base $9.50B revenue, $105M AEBITDA. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Investor Risks · September 14, 2026
Coupang at $15 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers
CPNG at $15 is 0.75x TTM sales and a ~0% FCF yield. The risk that reprices it is that the incident cohort never fully returns and mid-2027 margin recovery slips. Ranked factors for holders and new money. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Cash Flow · September 14, 2026
Coupang Cash Flow & Margins — From $1.8B FCF to a $100M Residual
CPNG cash-flow history: FCF $1.76B (2023) to $1.01B (2024) to $522M (2025) to ~$100M TTM. Product Commerce still prints mid-single-digit AEBITDA. Developing Offerings and the $410M fine ate the year. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Competitive Landscape · September 14, 2026
Coupang Competitive Landscape — Who Fights for the Same Korean Basket
Standalone competitive landscape for Coupang: Naver owns intent, Coupang owns the last mile. Baemin still leads Eats. Taiwan and Rocket Now are the expensive second act. Temu is the new guest. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Ownership · September 14, 2026
Coupang Ownership — SoftBank Still 16%, Bom Kim Still 74% of the Votes
CPNG cap-table note: SoftBank Vision Fund still 289.5M / 16.1%. Bom Kim owns all Class B and 74.3% of votes on ~8.8% of economics. Baillie Gifford cut 35% in Q2. Institutions own ~75% of shares out, ~84% of Class A. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Index History · September 12, 2026
SPCX vs Tesla — S&P 500 Inclusion Compared
Tesla entered SPX on 21 Dec 2020 at 1.69% after ten years public and four GAAP-profit quarters; indexers bought ~$80–94B. SpaceX is larger and already in NDX, but seasoning and earnings gates still block — calendar conversation opens 12 Jun 2027. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Index Plumbing · September 12, 2026
How QQQ Actually Buys ~173M SPCX Shares by Sep 18
Not one market order: APs pre-position 15–17 Sep and print the bulk in the 18 Sep closing auction. QQQ’s slice ~48M / $7.4B; as of 11 Sep it still held the old 1.26% weight. Companion to the NDX weight-math and float notes. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Index Math · September 12, 2026
How SPCX’s 1.28% and 2.82% Nasdaq-100 Weights Are Calculated
Not $2T ÷ Nasdaq-100 — modified market cap = price × min(listed Class A, 3 × float). The 1.28% → 2.82% step is a 2.20× float-file refresh, checked against live QQQ at 1.26%. Companion to the NDX float & unlock note. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Float & Index Flow · September 12, 2026
SPCX — Nasdaq-100 Weight 1.28% → 2.82%, and the Sep 25 Unlock
Nasdaq GIW lifts SpaceX NDX weight from 1.28% to ~2.82% — ~$26B / ~173M shares of mechanical demand into the 18 Sep rebalance, before the day-105 lock-up drip of up to 319M shares on 24–25 Sep. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Investor Risks · September 13, 2026
SpaceX at $151 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers
At ~$2.05T / ~64× sales, $151 is not a rocket multiple — it is an AI-factory and Starlink compounding bet under heavy capex. Risks that reprice it: AI megawatts not converting to contracted dollars, customer concentration, Starlink ARPU, and lock-up supply. Holder vs buyer framing. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Investor Risks · September 13, 2026
Remitly at $22 — Risk Book for Holders and Buyers
At ~$4.7B / ~10× FY26 EBITDA / ~8% FCF yield, $22 assumes mid-20s volume and ~21% EBITDA hold. The risks that reprice it: volume slipping to mid-teens, buying growth back with marketing, and cash tax after the DTA release. Holder vs buyer framing. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Cash Flow & Margins · September 12, 2026
Remitly — From −$6M FCF to a $400M Machine
Company FCF from −$6M (2021) to $283M (2025); H1’26 already $203M. Adj. EBITDA margin −2% → 17% → ~21% FY26 guide. Operating leverage on a stable transaction margin — not a take-rate miracle. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Competitive Landscape · September 12, 2026
Remitly Competitive Landscape — Who Actually Competes for the Same Dollar
Corridor-by-corridor map of remittance competition: Wise as the price ceiling, Western Union as the share pool, and where Remitly wins or loses on take-rate mix. Same-quarter peer tape for June 2026. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Ownership Intelligence · September 12, 2026
Remitly (RELY) — Institutions Take the Book, Insiders Only Sell
Institutional ownership from 80.2% at YE25 to ~88.6% now as Naspers/Prosus fully exited. L12M Form 4 tape is 100% sales; ~91% of the dollar volume was the Naspers block. Fidelity, BlackRock, and the index complex absorbed the float. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Equity Research · September 10, 2026
Remitly (RELY) — Net Cash, Quarterly Inflection, and a Nine-Year Owner’s Return
Cash $676M vs debt ~$38M. First full-year GAAP profit in 2025; Adj. EBITDA and FCF stepped up through H1’26. New CEO Sebastian Gunningham. Base nine-year owner’s return mid-teens if volume outruns take-rate pressure. Companion to the multi-asset framework. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Comparative Framework · September 10, 2026
Equities, the Index & Long Treasuries — A Nine-Year Owner’s-Return Comparison
Same 9-year horizon across Delta, Boeing, SpaceX, Tesla, Remitly, the S&P 500, TLT, and TLTW. Delta’s base (9–11%) still has the tightest cone over a valuation-aware index hurdle; Remitly’s base (12–16%) is higher but wider — take rate and corridor competition are the hinge; TLT is ~5% ballast; TLTW’s ~11% distribution is not its expected total return. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Q3 2026 Estimate · September 8, 2026
SpaceX (SPCX) — $10B+ Revenue, Operating Break-Even, −$15B FCF
Independent Q3 build below Street: $10.6B revenue, operating income near zero, capex still ~$18B and almost all AI. Sold megawatts can pay back in under a year; the installed fleet still yields ~$6.3B/GW-year. Cursor stub from the Aug 14 close is in the number. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Q3 2026 Estimate · September 8, 2026
Boeing — Soft July–August Deliveries, and the Q4 Cash Lift Inside a $1–3B Year
July 53 and August 51 jets after June’s 64. Management framed FY FCF at $1–3B, with Q3 in the low hundreds of millions after a ~$700M DOJ payment — which means Q4 must carry most of the year. Transparent delivery-path revenue and Q4 FCF arithmetic. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Q3 2026 Estimate · September 8, 2026
Delta — Mid-Teens Revenue and $2.00–$2.50 EPS Meet a Hotter Fuel Tape
July 10 guide: mid-teens revenue, 11–13% operating margin, adjusted EPS $2.00–$2.50, all-in fuel ~$3.15/gal. Bear/base/bull off that box, with secondary tape risk on Gulf Coast jet and July reliability labeled as such. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Q2 2026 Update · August 7, 2026
QuidelOrtho — The Deleveraging Thesis: Q2 2026 Update
Q2 wasn't as bad as feared — a clean beat on revenue, EBITDA, and EPS. But the second guidance cut of the year and a withdrawn cash-flow forecast confirm the equity is now a balance-sheet story: can a new CFO with a transaction résumé sell units at diagnostics-deal multiples and retire the ~$210M annual interest bill? Bilingual (EN/KO).
Company Update · August 7, 2026
Coursera (COUR) — Q2 Beat on Paper, a Governance Question Underneath
Udemy consolidation flatters headline growth (+60% Y/Y) while normalized organic revenue declined ~1%. The decisive development isn't operational: a $100M related-party investment in LearnVector, the board chairman's pre-product startup, at an implied ~$300M valuation — a legitimate basis for a governance discount. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Infrastructure Briefing · August 2026
SpaceX, Colossus & the AI Capex Race — Can SpaceX Keep Up?
After the February 2026 SpaceX–xAI merger, SpaceX became a genuine AI-capex player owning the Memphis Colossus clusters. Full-year hyperscaler guidance tops $725B; SpaceX’s AI wing is spending real money but remains 4–6× smaller. How does Colossus stack up on build speed, capital efficiency, and PUE? Bilingual (EN/KO).
CapEx Analysis · August 2026
SpaceX AI CapEx & Colossus — Numbers vs the Hyperscalers
Q2 2026 CapEx comparison table, Colossus 1 & 2 scale and construction metrics (~122 days to first 100k-GPU cluster), facility cost per MW, and PUE estimates against Google, Meta, AWS and Microsoft. Focused data companion to the Capex Race briefing. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Research Report · August 2, 2026
SpaceX: Capital Efficiency Is Real — But the Real Moat Is the People
Most analysis stops at the dollars raised and the rockets flown. The deeper advantage is the talent that joined and stayed for the vision over two decades — with profiles of key engineers and a comparison to Tesla’s parallel talent retention system.
Financial Analysis · August 1, 2026
Starlink Margin Expansion — From Break-Even to 63% EBITDA
Connectivity segment Adjusted EBITDA margin reached ~63% in 2025 with operating margin near 39%. Scale, vertical integration, and network efficiency drove the expansion even as ARPU declined with international growth. Trajectory, drivers, headwinds, and outlook. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Technology & Economics · August 1, 2026
Starlink V3 Satellites — Capacity Leap & Unit Economics
Each V3 delivers ~10× downlink and ~22× uplink versus V2. One Starship launch can add ~60 Tbps. Manufacturing cost estimates (~$1.0–1.2M), lower cost-per-Gbps, Starship synergy, latency benefits, and competitive implications. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Investment Thesis · August 1, 2026
Grok’s Physical AI Edge — Why Embodiment Could Redefine the Landscape
Claude’s “aha moment” came from deep Excel/PowerPoint-style office integrations. The next structural shift is physical AI. A thesis on how Grok (xAI) + Tesla Optimus + Starlink connectivity may create a durable data and deployment moat in 3–5 years. Risks included. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Event-Driven Analysis · July 30, 2026
SpaceX — The August Earnings, Lockup & Short-Covering Setup
Why a large post-IPO unlock does not automatically imply a large selloff — the interaction between the first public earnings, an unusually high short position (~32% of float), price-sensitive insider supply below the $135 IPO price, and deep retail demand. Three early-August scenarios. For discussion and research only. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Investment View · July 29, 2026
AECOM's $390M AI Bet — Can Consigli Reshape Engineering Economics?
Why a few hundred million on a Norwegian AI startup can matter across a multi-billion-dollar service base — the margin math, the headcount-decoupling question, and what could go wrong. AI-generated, reference only. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Competitive Landscape · July 29, 2026
Who Can Challenge AECOM's AI Engineering Bet?
Endra, Augmenta, Autodesk, Bentley and rivals' in-house AI — mapped by threat level, with the one risk that really matters: commoditization. AI-generated, reference only. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Deal Coverage · July 29, 2026
AECOM Acquires Consigli — Infrastructure × AI
A customer buys its own AI supplier: the ~$390M / NOK 4.0B deal, a reported ~67% stake, the founder joining as Head of AI Engineering, and the competitive read-through. AI-generated, reference only. Bilingual (EN/KO).
Ownership Intelligence · July 28, 2026
SpaceX × Tesla Merger — Musk's Blended Stake
SpaceX and Tesla are worth about the same (~$1.5T each), yet Musk owns very different slices — ~42% of SpaceX vs ~20% of Tesla. The merger ratio decides where his combined stake lands between those two numbers. An analysis of how the deal structure reshapes his ownership of the combined company.
Interactive Model · July 28, 2026
SpaceX Buys Tesla — Who Controls the Combined Company?
The acquisition label matters less than the share classes. A SpaceX-led transaction can leave Musk with roughly one-third of the economics yet potentially majority voting control — if high-vote founder shares survive and Tesla holders receive ordinary-vote shares. An interactive voting-power simulator.
Interactive Model · July 28, 2026
Blended Ownership — The Deal-Value Slider
Move the deal-value split and watch Musk's blended ownership of the combined company. He owns ~42% of SpaceX but ~20% of Tesla, so the ratio decides where his stake lands between those two. The companion economic-ownership tool to the voting-power simulator.
Ownership Intelligence · July 2026
SpaceX (SPCX) — A Thin Float, and the Supply to Come
SpaceX arrived as the largest IPO in history — yet fewer than 5% of its shares actually trade. That scarcity drove the early spike; now a wave of lock-up expirations flips the equation. A look at the supply-demand structure, the lock-up schedule, and the Korean ETF exposure routing retail demand into a very thin float.
Interactive Model · July 2026
SpaceX Float & Demand — A Supply-Demand Simulation
Can structural demand from ETFs, index funds, active managers and retail investors exceed the shares actually offered for sale? An interactive model of the SPCX float: adjust the inputs and watch tradable supply meet structural demand. The companion tool to the float & ETF analysis.
Investment Brief · July 20, 2026
Restaurant & Franchise Brief — July 20 Edition
Seven developments across franchise deals and distress: Jersey Mike's IPO filing putting a premium on documented ~42% franchisee returns, Pizza Hut's $2.7B breakup sale, Papa Johns' proposed take-private with a major franchisee, Inspire Brands' balance-sheet IPO, and two franchisee bankruptcies (Hardee's, Popeyes) showing that sales scale cannot offset negative unit economics.
Investment Brief · July 2026
U.S. Restaurant & Franchise — The Acquisition & Investment Lens
Pizza Hut's $2.7B sale as a benchmark for challenged franchise systems, Wendy's take-private interest, Red Robin's refranchising math, Texas Roadhouse's premium unit economics, a Hardee's franchisee bankruptcy, and MTY's closure program. Six developments, one theme: valuation discipline is shifting from brand recognition to unit-level cash conversion.
Research Essay · July 2026
AI, Physical AI, Capital Ownership — and the Future of Distribution
If AI and robotics make labor close to unlimited, will capital ownership dominate — and will scarcity disappear or move into status, land, energy, trust and ownership? An analytical framework on the economics of automation, with the policy question shifting from how much to tax high earners to who owns the AI capital that produces national income.
Research Essay · July 2026
Money Supply, Wealth Creation — and Unequal Distribution
How moderate money growth can support economic expansion, why it does not automatically create real wealth, and why total prosperity can rise even as wealth becomes more concentrated. A companion piece to the ownership thesis, working through the monetary mechanics underneath the concentration data.
MajorHolders Framework · July 2026
The Ownership Thesis — Why We Track Major Holders
The core framework behind MajorHolders. How ownership concentration shapes who benefits from asset appreciation, how prosperity ripples in weakening waves from the center, and the circular question of whether asset value drives ownership or ownership drives asset value. A single-page synthesis of the site's underlying thesis.
Research Note · July 2026
How a Stock Index Actually Works — S&P 500 vs. Nasdaq vs. Dow
Three famous benchmarks, three completely different rulebooks. What an index actually is, how each of the big three is built and rebalanced, and how to choose between cap-weighted, equal-weighted, and revenue-weighted approaches. An informative note before your next look at the market.
Equity Research · July 2026
Coursera + Udemy — The Margin Story Takes Over
Following the June 23 supplemental modeling call, the COUR investment case has shifted from revenue growth to margin expansion and capital return. Revenue guided down on a normalized basis, but synergies arriving ahead of the original 24-month plan (≥$80M by year-end), the share count already shrinking (>$70M repurchased in ~5 weeks), and a Q4'26 exit margin of ~16% pointing to a materially higher 2027 earnings base.
Strategic Analysis · July 2026
Comcast's Counterattack — Cable-Powered Wireless vs. the FWA Threat
Fixed wireless poached millions of cable broadband customers by selling spare 5G capacity as home internet. Comcast's counter inverts the play: sell mobile service carried mostly on the cable network it already owns — because roughly 90% of "mobile" data is consumed at or near a building cable already serves. The three-layer network build, the Q1 2026 scoreboard, and what the strategy can and cannot do.
Sector Research · July 2026
Starlink's Capacity Curve — From Rural Niche to Broadband Contender
SpaceX's constellation ended 2025 near 450 Tbps of total capacity. With Starship-launched V3 satellites adding ~60 Tbps per flight, a decade-long trajectory model asks the harder question: does "total Tbps" actually mean anything when comparing satellite to terrestrial? What the capacity curve through 2035 means for Comcast, Charter, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.
Strategic Analysis · July 2026
Comcast's M&A Scorecard — From NBCUniversal to ITV
Two decades of dealmaking show a consistent pattern: Comcast creates value buying from distressed sellers and destroys it bidding at auction. A full deal ledger from Adelphia to Time Warner Cable to Sky, the story of how Universal ended up inside NBCU, a scorecard on every major bid, and valuation scenarios for NBCUniversal at the mid-2027 spin.
Ownership Intelligence · July 2026
Comcast — Capital vs. Control
Institutions own roughly 84% of Comcast's equity, yet no shareholder holds a majority — and one man's non-tradable Class B stock controls a third of every vote cast. A four-year review of majority owners and insider activity, with the governance implications for the coming NBCUniversal/Sky spin-off.
Comparative Screen · June 2026
Six Companies, Two Snapshots — Today vs. Four Years Ago
Coursera, Boeing, Comcast, QuidelOrtho, Delta Air Lines and Credo Technology, each run through the same disciplined 6-gate value-investing checklist as of June 2026 and as if the report had been written in June 2022. Now including Comcast — two spin-offs in one year (Versant in January, NBCUniversal/Sky announced late June). Across four years, not one of these six was ever a clean PASS.
Equity Research · June 2026
The Boeing Company — A Turnaround in Mid-Flight
From grounded to climbing: a record $695 billion backlog, a stabilizing factory floor, and the long runway back to positive free cash flow. Seven years of altitude plotted, three pillars of the recovery case, the 2018–2026 crisis timeline, and what could go wrong — and right — from here.
Equity Research · June 2026
Boeing 777X — Certification Delays, Financial Risk & Outlook
A comprehensive analysis of the 777X program's regulatory bottlenecks, mounting write-down risk, and Boeing's narrowbody-led recovery thesis heading into 2H 2026. Where the FAA queue actually sits, what the accumulated program losses imply for further charges, and how the rest of the portfolio is offsetting the widebody overhang.
Ownership Intelligence · May 2026
COUR — Insight's Sell-Down vs. the $500M Buyback
Insight Partners held ~29.6M COUR shares at merger close on May 11. In under three weeks they've crossed below 10% — the Section 16 reporting threshold — selling into a declining stock and leaving a structural overhang. A reading of the supply pressure, the buyback math that partially offsets it, and what each side is doing to the price.
ETF Research · May 2026
TLTW — The Story Depends on the Timeframe
Since-inception, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite ETF has lost 43% of its price. Since September 2023 — once the 2022 rate spike is behind you — total returns are positive 9.8%. The same fund, three different stories depending on which window you read. A reading of when the strategy works, when it doesn't, and what an investor entering today should actually expect.
Ownership Intelligence · May 2026
Coursera × Udemy — The Combined Cap Table
The all-stock merger closed May 11, 2026 at a 0.800× exchange ratio, creating a ~$2.5B online-learning entity. A synthesis of 13G/13D filings, Form 3/4 disclosures, the S-4 proxy, and the May 18 Insight Partners sale — mapping who owns the combined company and what the $500M buyback authorization means for the float.
Equity Research · May 2026
QuidelOrtho — The 120% Problem
Ninety-four 13F filers hold the equivalent of 120% of QDEL's shares outstanding — a 13.5M-share over-reporting gap that maps almost exactly onto the short interest. The May 2026 snapshot, the securities-lending economics that explain the gap, and the full holder-by-holder cap table.
Video Briefing · YouTube · May 2026
AI — The Capital Cascade
A video walk-through of the AI Supercycle research — five hyperscalers, $775 billion in 2026 capex, a memory oligopoly rationing supply, and the sustainability question. The companion analysis to the written piece, in moving form.
Infrastructure Supercycle · May 2026
The AI Supercycle — Capex, Memory & the Sustainability Question
Five hyperscalers will spend roughly $775 billion in 2026 — nearly doubling 2025's record. A memory-chip oligopoly is rationing supply. End-user ROI lags badly behind capex. Reading whether this is a demand-led boom or a supply-driven mirage — and the three constraints money cannot solve.
Economics · May 2026 · 6 chapters
Inflation Explained: Who Actually Pays the Price?
From the basics of CPI to the asset bubble problem — how inflation interacts with asset ownership, class, and the structural flaws in how we measure it. Six chapters with interactive charts on the four ways official inflation undercounts the cost-of-living squeeze on the poor.
Macro · May 2026
The US Debt Picture — $80 Trillion Across Three Buckets
Roughly 2.7× annual economic output, owed across government, businesses, and households. A reading of the largest borrower on earth, the engines of business capital, and what the household debt picture actually looks like below the headline number.
Equity research · May 2026
QuidelOrtho — Financial Guidance vs. Actuals
Five fiscal years of QDEL guidance against what actually happened. From the COVID sugar high through the CEO transition to the May 5 reset — every guide issued, every mid-year revision, every miss. The pattern that emerges is the story.
Diagnostic briefing · May 2026
The K-Shaped Chasm — Navigating the 2026 Market Fracture
The S&P 500 is up 205% since 2020. Consumer sentiment hit 47.6 — the lowest reading on record. A synthesis of Fed stability data, CapEx shifts, and sector breadth reading the widest disconnect between asset prices and lived reality in modern US history.
Software economics · May 2026
Custom Accounting Software — The Solo Operator Question
AI coding assistants have collapsed the technical floor for building software. The arithmetic of a senior operator's time has not. A viability assessment of the build-it-yourself accounting stack — for personal use, a vertical-SaaS venture, or neither.
Equity research · May 2026
QuidelOrtho — Institutional Ownership Tracker
The proxy is filed; the Schedule 13Gs followed. T. Rowe halved its position, Fidelity bulked up to 11.5%, Newtyn accumulated through the drawdown. A reading of QDEL's cap table across the past three quarters, with cost basis estimates and live mark-to-market.
Equity research · April 2026
QuidelOrtho — The Holder Rotation Thesis
The fundamentals declined ~33% from peak. The stock declined ~95%. The gap is who owns it now — and what it would take to bring the long-only money back. An interactive look at QDEL's cap table, the reflexive trap, and the May 5 catalyst.
Strategic analysis · April 2026
Building a $2.5B Diagnostics Company — Three Paths
Greenfield, roll-up, hybrid — the capital, timeline, and probability of success across every viable way to assemble a QDEL-scope IVD franchise. The honest answer to "how do I build this" turns out to be "you almost certainly don't."
Competitive analysis · April 2026
QuidelOrtho Competitive Position — Franchise by Franchise
The instinctive comparison — QDEL vs. Roche — hides the real strategic picture. Reading QuidelOrtho's four franchises individually reveals one to lean into, one to defend, one to harvest, and one to selectively attack. Letter grades for each.
Market analyst report · March 2026
U.S. Residential Real Estate — The 350-Home Rule
Analysis of the Institutional Investor Restriction Act and its impact on SFR, BTR, apartments, and REITs. Why the bill paradoxically raises rents — and which apartment REITs are best positioned to benefit.
Personal finance guide · 2026
Self-Directed IRA — Take Control of Your Retirement
Real estate, precious metals, private equity, and crypto in a tax-advantaged retirement account. A practical guide to how self-directed IRAs work, how to choose a custodian, and the prohibited-transaction rules that trip up most first-time users.