QDEL · 6-gate checklist · The trap the filter caught
In-vitro diagnostics: instruments plus recurring consumables (labs, molecular, point-of-care, transfusion).
Each block is one gate (G1–G6), five pips strongest. The highlighted gate is the one that decides the verdict that year.
| Gate | 2022 — Then | 2026 — Today |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Circle of competence | Razor/blade diagnostics; brand-new merged entity = fog | Understandable; post-merger debt and China add fog |
| G2 Good business | Optically booming — but COVID-fat, one-off earnings | Recurring consumables, but low margin and COVID hangover |
| G3 Moat | Installed-base lock-in vs Roche / Abbott / Siemens | Moderate installed-base switching costs |
| G4 Management | Bought Ortho at the peak, plus debt; market hated the deal | Value-destructive merger; new CFO; turnaround unproven |
| G5 Margin of safety | 'Cheap' P/E on peak-COVID earnings = false cheapness | Optically very cheap (~5.5x fwd P/E, <0.4x sales)... |
| G6 Decision discipline | Value-trap signature — cheap on peak earnings, leverage rising | ...but thin equity over ~$2.4B debt — leverage, not a free lunch |
The most instructive call. In 2022 QDEL screened as 'cheap and wildly profitable,' yet Gates 4 and 5 flagged it anyway — the earnings were a COVID one-off and the Ortho merger piled on ~$2.4B of debt at the cycle top. The stock then fell more than 70%. Today it is a genuine deep-value, deleveraging gray-zone bet: the equity is optically very cheap, but that cheapness is leverage — a thin equity slice on top of heavy debt — and the management track record is exactly the unresolved question.
Data notes. Today figures are from live market sources (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends) and cross-checked; 2022 figures are approximate point-in-time marks (denoted with “~”). Credo’s fiscal year ends in spring, so its FY2026 already reflects data through ~May 2026. QuidelOrtho’s market cap fell sharply through 2026 (from ~$2.3B in January to ~$0.7B), so its cap depends on the date. Boeing’s trailing-twelve-month profitability is volatile and near breakeven. Information richness: A (multi-source) for all five.
This is a research framework, not investment advice. Figures should be independently verified. Past performance does not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before risking money.