BA · 6-gate checklist · The constant veto
Commercial-aerospace duopoly plus defense, space and global services.
Each block is one gate (G1–G6), five pips strongest. The highlighted gate is the one that decides the verdict that year.
| Gate | 2022 — Then | 2026 — Today |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Circle of competence | Graspable duopoly plus defense | Same understandable franchise |
| G2 Good business | Net losses, 787 halt, China freeze — crisis economics | Revenue +33%, but still near-breakeven, messy TTM |
| G3 Moat | Duopoly and certification barriers intact; reputation cratering | Wide structural moat, backlog, switching costs — tarnished |
| G4 Management | MAX criminal / DPA fresh; safety-culture stain — auto-veto | Ortberg turnaround underway, but door-plug / DOJ stain persists |
| G5 Margin of safety | No earnings to value; ~$80B cap | ~1.85x sales, no real earnings to anchor |
| G6 Decision discipline | Veto already triggered | Integrity veto still binding |
Boeing is the control case — FAIL then FAIL, four years apart, on the same gate. The structural moat is arguably the widest of the five (a global duopoly with certification barriers and a vast backlog), and revenue is now recovering hard. But the binding constraint has never been the business or the price. It is Gate 4: a safety-and-integrity record (the MAX, the door-plug blowout, the DOJ matter) that the framework treats as an automatic veto no valuation can buy back. A more lenient reading would call it a gray zone if the new management's culture fix proves durable — but that evidence is not in yet.
Data notes. Today figures are from live market sources (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends) and cross-checked; 2022 figures are approximate point-in-time marks (denoted with “~”). Credo’s fiscal year ends in spring, so its FY2026 already reflects data through ~May 2026. QuidelOrtho’s market cap fell sharply through 2026 (from ~$2.3B in January to ~$0.7B), so its cap depends on the date. Boeing’s trailing-twelve-month profitability is volatile and near breakeven. Information richness: A (multi-source) for all five.
This is a research framework, not investment advice. Figures should be independently verified. Past performance does not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before risking money.