COUR · 6-gate checklist · Darling to cigar butt
Online-learning marketplace (Consumer, Enterprise, Degrees); merging with Udemy.
Each block is one gate (G1–G6), five pips strongest. The highlighted gate is the one that decides the verdict that year.
| Gate | 2022 — Then | 2026 — Today |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Circle of competence | Simple marketplace model | Still simple; Udemy merger adds some complexity |
| G2 Good business | 41%->22% growth, widening losses, no profit path | ~9% growth, GAAP losses; FCF+ ~$78M is the bright spot |
| G3 Moat | Weak; low switching costs, content commoditizing | AI tutors / free content erode the core; defensive merger |
| G4 Management | Founder-CEO, clean, but burning for growth | New ex-Amazon CEO; buybacks and merger are unproven bets |
| G5 Margin of safety | ~5x sales, unprofitable — a de-rating growth name, not cheap | Trades near net cash; EV ~$0.9B on $757M rev, fwd P/E ~9 |
| G6 Decision discipline | Falling growth darling — momentum unwinding | Cigar-butt: cheap on cash, but is the business worth owning? |
In 2022 the filter failed it at Gate 2 — a decelerating, deeply loss-making growth story priced at ~5x sales. By 2026 it has de-rated to near its net cash, turned FCF-positive, and is merging with Udemy for scale — so it is no longer expensive. But the business-quality and moat questions, now sharpened by AI eating the 'learn online' value prop, are exactly why it sits in the gray zone rather than passing.
Data notes. Today figures are from live market sources (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends) and cross-checked; 2022 figures are approximate point-in-time marks (denoted with “~”). Credo’s fiscal year ends in spring, so its FY2026 already reflects data through ~May 2026. QuidelOrtho’s market cap fell sharply through 2026 (from ~$2.3B in January to ~$0.7B), so its cap depends on the date. Boeing’s trailing-twelve-month profitability is volatile and near breakeven. Information richness: A (multi-source) for all five.
This is a research framework, not investment advice. Figures should be independently verified. Past performance does not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before risking money.