CRDO · 6-gate checklist · The winner the filter missed
High-speed connectivity for AI data centers: active electrical cables, SerDes, optical DSPs.
Each block is one gate (G1–G6), five pips strongest. The highlighted gate is the one that decides the verdict that year.
| Gate | 2022 — Then | 2026 — Today |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Circle of competence | Tiny post-IPO niche chip co; AI catalyst not yet visible — hard to know | AI-datacenter connectivity; durability of the edge is the hard part |
| G2 Good business | ~$106M revenue, thin profit, promising margins, unproven scale | 65%+ gross, 35% net, +206% revenue — excellent right now |
| G3 Moat | Unproven edge; concentration; no public track record | Real tech edge, but 3-customer concentration; Astera / Marvell chase |
| G4 Management | Founder-CEO Brennan; unproven as a public capital allocator | Executes; beat-and-raise; heavy dilution the one knock |
| G5 Margin of safety | ~14x sales for a $106M-rev chip co in a brutal tape | ~33x sales, ~40x fwd P/E — no margin of safety |
| G6 Decision discipline | Speculative small-cap — lottery territory | Beta 4.32; the price is pure momentum |
The framework's blind spot, and an honest one. In 2022 a quality-and-value filter correctly called a $106M-revenue, just-IPO'd chip company at ~14x sales a FAIL — but it then roughly 20x'd, because the AI-connectivity catalyst was unknowable on a 10-minute screen. Today it fails again, on the opposite gate: the thesis is proven and the business is genuinely excellent, but ~33x sales leaves no margin of safety. Same verdict, different reason — a reminder that a discipline which saves you from QuidelOrtho-style traps will also screen out some Credo-style winners.
Data notes. Today figures are from live market sources (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends) and cross-checked; 2022 figures are approximate point-in-time marks (denoted with “~”). Credo’s fiscal year ends in spring, so its FY2026 already reflects data through ~May 2026. QuidelOrtho’s market cap fell sharply through 2026 (from ~$2.3B in January to ~$0.7B), so its cap depends on the date. Boeing’s trailing-twelve-month profitability is volatile and near breakeven. Information richness: A (multi-source) for all five.
This is a research framework, not investment advice. Figures should be independently verified. Past performance does not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before risking money.