DAL · 6-gate checklist · Cycle round-trip
Premium-skewed legacy airline with a high-margin Amex loyalty engine (plus a refinery).
Each block is one gate (G1–G6), five pips strongest. The highlighted gate is the one that decides the verdict that year.
| Gate | 2022 — Then | 2026 — Today |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Circle of competence | Best-run legacy carrier plus the Amex engine | Same understandable franchise |
| G2 Good business | COVID hangover, fuel spike, heavy debt — tough | ~7% net margin, 25% ROE (levered); still a tough industry |
| G3 Moat | Hubs, slots, loyalty, Amex — narrow but real | Hubs, loyalty, Amex; airlines lack durable pricing power |
| G4 Management | Bastian navigating the recovery; clean record | Disciplined: deleveraging, buybacks, raising the dividend |
| G5 Margin of safety | Depressed earnings, ~$20B cap near lows — genuinely cheap | P/E 13.5 near a record high ($95) — cycle-peak risk |
| G6 Decision discipline | Contrarian entry near the lows, not FOMO | Doubled off the 2025 lows — buying near the top is the FOMO test |
The cycle in one stock. Gray-but-cheap near the lows in 2022 — Gate 5 was its strength then, with depressed earnings and a contrarian entry — it roughly tripled to record highs, and now it is gray-but-pricey, with Gate 5 and Gate 6 the binding constraints (peak-cycle earnings, FOMO risk). Same business, same narrow moat, same disciplined management throughout; only the price moved the risk and reward. The filter flagged the bargain then and flags the cycle-peak now.
Data notes. Today figures are from live market sources (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends) and cross-checked; 2022 figures are approximate point-in-time marks (denoted with “~”). Credo’s fiscal year ends in spring, so its FY2026 already reflects data through ~May 2026. QuidelOrtho’s market cap fell sharply through 2026 (from ~$2.3B in January to ~$0.7B), so its cap depends on the date. Boeing’s trailing-twelve-month profitability is volatile and near breakeven. Information richness: A (multi-source) for all five.
This is a research framework, not investment advice. Figures should be independently verified. Past performance does not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before risking money.